Munich, 30 October 2026 · Nexuswelt Group

2027 is the l

ast year of Horizon Europe as it currently exists and the year in which its successor is finalised. That makes it a transition year, and transition years reward organisations that positioned early and punish those that waited for clarity.

This is the forward view: what is scheduled to happen, the shifts already underway that will define the next period, what each means for coordinators and for deep-tech companies, and what is genuinely still uncertain.

The 2027 calendar

The last row is the one that matters most and appears in no official timeline. The organisations that participated well in the first Horizon Europe calls were almost without exception already inside consortia that formed before the programme launched. The same will be true in 2028, and that work happens during 2027.

Six shifts already underway

1. Lump sum becomes the default

Around half the current call budget is already delivered as lump sum, and it is proposed as the default model in the successor programme. The consequence is that budget accuracy at proposal stage becomes a permanent capability rather than an occasional requirement, and work package design becomes a financial decision because completion triggers payment.

2. Competitiveness framing moves closer to the centre

Collaborative research in the next programme is proposed as closely integrated with a new competitiveness instrument, and the degree of that integration remains the central open question in negotiations. Whatever the settlement, the direction is clear enough to plan around: proposals that can express their contribution in industrial competitiveness terms without abandoning their scientific case will be better positioned than those that cannot.

3. Sovereignty language becomes operational

The technology sovereignty framework moved during 2026 from rhetoric to legislative proposals and a defined list of priority technologies. It now shapes which topics are written and, through participation conditions, who may apply to them. Ownership structure – not address – is what determines eligibility for the most sensitive topics.

4. The civil–defence boundary keeps softening

The expansion of European Innovation Council funding to dual-use technologies during 2026 removed a structural separation that had held for years. A civil company with defence-relevant technology now has routes that did not exist, and the decision about whether to use them is strategic rather than merely financial.

5. Association keeps widening

Canada, South Korea, Ukraine, Japan and Australia are now associated or associating, with exploratory talks concluded with India and further countries at the negotiating table. For coordinators this widens the partner pool considerably; for organisations in those countries it means the access problem, not the eligibility problem, is what needs solving.

6. Competition continues to intensify

Success rates have been running at roughly 14 to 16% and falling as applications rise, with some areas – digital and AI topics in particular – running far below that. A larger successor budget will not necessarily reduce pressure, because application volumes have been rising faster than budgets.

What this means for coordinators

• Build the capability to budget accurately under lump sum, and design work packages as payment units with clean completion criteria. This is a durable investment, not a compliance chore.
• Treat delivery in current projects as positioning for the next period. A completed project with evidenced uptake is what makes an organisation a credible coordinator in 2028, and there is no other way to acquire that in time.
• Start consortium conversations for the new programme during 2027, before topics exist. The relationships, not the topics, are the scarce input.
• Build networks across clusters rather than within one. Horizontal calls that cut across thematic boundaries reward partner networks that already span domains, and a network built inside one silo cannot be fixed in a submission cycle.
• Close out current projects properly. Named owners for results and relationships after the grant are what convert a finished project into a track record.

What this means for deep-tech firms

• Reassess the instrument mix. If the innovation and frontier-science instruments are strengthened relative to the middle of the programme, organisations that only apply to collaborative calls should test whether that remains the right allocation.
• Watch your sector’s share rather than the headline budget. A rising total can coincide with a falling share, as the clean energy example in the current proposals shows.
• Establish your position on dual-use deliberately – export control classification, IP implications and investor mandates – rather than reacting to an opportunity when it appears.
• Arrange compute and infrastructure access now where it applies. Naming a specific access route in an implementation section converts an unpriced risk into a credible plan, and costs nothing.
• If you hold results from a completed civil project, examine whether the spin-in routes offer a second life for them.

What to do in the next six months

1. Audit your consortium network against the clusters and horizontal themes you expect to target, and identify the gaps that take months rather than weeks to fill.

2. Build or acquire the lump sum budgeting capability, including the work package design discipline that goes with it.

3. Check your ownership and control position against participation conditions for the topics that matter to you.

4. Ensure current projects are collecting uptake evidence continuously, because that evidence is your 2028 credibility.

5. Decide your dual-use position, with the export control question answered first.

6. If you are in an associated country, treat 2027 as the year to enter consortia rather than the year to prepare to enter them.

7. Assign post-project owners for results and relationships in any project closing before 2028.

What is genuinely uncertain

A forecast that presents everything as settled is not useful. The following remain open, and organisations should plan in ways that survive either outcome.

The practical response to genuine uncertainty is not to wait for it to resolve. It is to invest in the things that pay off under every scenario: relationships, delivery record, budgeting capability and a clear account of what your results are for.

How Nexuswelt works across transitions

Programme transitions reward organisations that positioned before the rules were final. Nexuswelt works with research organisations, deep-tech companies and coordinators on strategic positioning, instrument selection and consortium building, and contributes to funded projects as a partner for communication, dissemination, stakeholder engagement and exploitation. The detailed analysis of the successor programme is in our FP10 guide, and more on the firm is on the Nexuswelt about page.

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